2025 Recession Probability Distribution. 26 rows in depth view into us recession probability including historical data. Our economists say there’s a 15% chance of recession in the next 12 months, down from their earlier projection of 20%.
While there is optimism about avoiding a recession, several analysts remain cautious. Let’s examine the key developments that could define 2025, understanding that while specific predictions may miss their mark, the underlying trends they represent warrant.